Why did my friends take a break in 2009?  I’ll update this at the end of 2012 (I know there are a couple in the works).

Every year, the Packers send Waitlist members a postcard to let you know where you stand on the list.  I haven’t always tracked my progress but in wading through facebook posts and old e-mails to Dave about our status, I was able to dig up the following data.
 

 

 
In fitting a linear trendline to this data, I yielded the following:  y = -732.13x + 66539.  This means two things:

1. We’re moving up an average of 732.13 spots each year (less in recent years so unfortunately winning doesn’t help our cause)
2. Finding the x-intercept shows that our name will come up in ≈84.2 years

I’ll be sure to update this graph each year for the rest of my life…then pass it on to my grandchildren.

And for the record, I’m one spot ahead of Dave on the list.

Chevy HHR	Kia Soul	Nissan Cube
PT Cruiser	Scion Xb	Cardboard Box

To be honest, the PT Cruiser (and all of these cars I suppose) has always reminded me of this:

A lot of people focus most of their bracket destruction excuses on the first round upsets. While this is perhaps the most memorable round of upsets, I will also consider the subsequent rounds and the total upsets in the entire tournament to evaluate just how prevalent upsets are from year to year. Additionally, since a nine seed defeating an eight seed is technically an upset, albeit not a large one, I will also consider the magnitude of the upsets in a given year by summing the total upset differential of all of the upsets which occurred.
 

My Qualitative Observations:

• 1985: As a number eight seed, the 1985 Villanova Wildcats remain the lowest seeded team to ever win the tournament. They also caused the largest Final Four upset in tournament history over number two seeded Memphis (upset differential of six) and the largest championship upset in tournament history over number one Georgetown (upset differential of seven).
• 1985–1987: At the onset of the 64 team structure, Navy was good at basketball. Weird. Since these first three years, they have never made it back to the big dance. The highlight of these appearances was 1986 when Navy advanced to the Elite Eight.
• 1986: The largest Cinderella team in tournament history (by inflicting the most total upset differential on its opponents) was number 11 seeded LSU in 1986. LSU defeated number six Purdue, number three Memphis, number two Georgia Tech, and number one Kentucky, on its way to the Final Four. LSU’s defeat of Georgia Tech was also the largest sweet 16 upset in tournament history. In this year, number 14 Cleveland State had a memorable run in the fairly new 64 team tournament structure, defeating number three Indiana and number six Saint Joseph’s. Little Rock had a memorable first round win over number three Notre Dame. This was also the season that the NCAA officially adopted the 19’9” three point line.
• 1987: A memorable run from number 14 seed Austin Peay, who defeated number three Illinois in the opening round.
• 1990: The year with the most severe overall upsets in tournament history was 1990, when the total seed differential of all upsets totaled 111. In 1990, the total number of upsets (22) was only one upset shy of the all time high, which occurred in 1999. 1990 also saw the most second round upsets (9) in tournament history. Although this number of second round upsets also occurred in 2000, the total second round upset differential in 1990, 53, makes this the most severe second round of upsets in tournament history.
• 1992–1993: Michigan’s Fab Five made unsuccessful runs at two championships prior to ruining Michigan’s basketball program and Weber’s timeout. Who knows what would have come from a third Fab Five season, rather than a sort-of-fab four in 1994.
• 1993: The total number of upsets in 1993 (12) is tied for the least all time. This number also occurred in 2007.
• 1997: During my freshman year at the University of Minnesota, I tried to be a gopher fan. I really did. However, their underperforming football and basketball teams made being a Minnesota sports fan exhausting. During my review, it was strange to see Minnesota (1) make a run to the 1990 Elite Eight, (2) make a run all the way to the 1997 Final Four, and (3) be a 1997 one seed. I realize that it recently became “tubby time” up north, but I don’t expect to see this ever happen again in my lifetime. Perhaps this is like my name coming up in the Green Bay Packers season ticket waiting list (currently 62,139^th) and my kids can expect to see it happen in their lifetime.
• 1999: The most upsets in tournament history (not factoring in seed differential) occurred in 1999 with a total of 23 upsets.
• 1999–2001: From 1999 to 2001, Gonzaga busted brackets like it was their job, defeating six teams for a total upset differential (difference in seeds) of 33.
• 2000: The fewest first round upsets in tournament history occurred in 2000, with only three. In this year, the smallest first round total upset differential, 11, also occurred and Wisconsin, the greatest team in the history of college basketball, advanced to the final four.
• 2001: The most first round upsets in tournament history occurred in 2001. That year, 13 upsets occurred in the first round for a total upset differential of 65 (this is also the largest first round upset differential in tournament history). The average seed differential in these 13 first round upsets was 5.0.
• 2002: The largest average upset differential in tournament history occurred in 2002. Each upset this year averaged a seed difference of 5.94.
• 2006: Davidson’s 2006 Final Four run was the second largest infliction of upset differential on its opponents in tournament history (a total seed difference of 27), behind only 1986 LSU. This was also the year that the NBA began requiring high school players to wait one year after graduation before being eligible for the draft, encouraging more players to pursue one-and-done college careers.
• 2007: The least upsets in tournament history occurred in 2007, with only 12 (12 upsets also occurred in 1993, however, they were more severe). This year also yielded the least severe upsets in tournament history, when the total upset differential (difference in seeds) was a mere 25 and the average upset was by a seed difference of only 2.08.
• 2008: The only year that all number one seeds made it to the Final Four.
• 2009: The three point line was officially lengthened from 19’9” to 20’9.”
• 2011: The most severe round of elite eight upsets in tournament history occured (considering total seed differential). Both VCU and Butler’s cinderella runs were memorable, but are still not as large of a seed differential as occured during LSU’s 1986 run and Davidson’s 2006 run.
   
• 1985–1991: Although known today mainly for its buffets and Celine Dion concerts, Las Vegas used to have a basketball team. I was merely a young warthog at the time, so I don’t remember these years, but UNLV appeared in every tournament from 1985 through 1991 and advanced to the final four in 1987, 1990, and 1991.
• 1991, 1993, 1997, 2001: The largest upsets in tournament history occurred four times in the first round 15 seed versus the two seed matchup (upset differential of 13). The games included Richmond over Syracuse (1991), Santa Clara over Arizona (1993), Coppin State over South Carolina (1997), and Hampton over Iowa State (2001). In tournament history, no 16 seed has ever defeated a one seed in the first round.
• 1986, 1988, 1990, 2000, 2004: More second round upsets occurred in these years than first round upsets.
• 1986 and 2006: The largest Elite Eight upsets in tournament history (both 11 seeds over one seeds for an upset differential of 10), occurred. The games included George Mason over Connecticut (2006) and LSU over Kentucky (1986).
• 1986–2000: While Bob Knight wasn’t throwing chairs at Indiana, he was making an impressive run of tournament appearances. These included a 1987 National Championship, three Sweet Sixteens (1989, 1991, and 1994), a 1992 appearance in the National Semifinals, and a 1993 Elite Eight appearance. Later, while coaching Texas Tech, knight made four more appearances in the tournament in 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2007.
• 2001-Present: Bo Ryan, the winningest coach in Big Ten history (among coaches with more than 5 years experience) with a 71.4% winning percentage, hasn’t missed the tournament since becoming the head coach at Wisconsin 10 years ago. Prior to Ryan, the badgers had only been to the tournament seven times in their history.
   

With upsets seeming fairly consistent since the inception of the 64 team tournament structure, contrary to popular belief, it doesn’t seem as though the selection committee has gotten worse at their job (although they stiffed Colorado pretty badly in 2011).

In all the years that I’ve finished last in my own pool, I think the less time I spend trying to predict upsets the better I do. These people will probably always beat me anyway.

My data and graphs spreadsheet is available here.

The cheapest hard hat Amazon had to offer

Should have been a clear sign that my custume was in no way original

It turns out the Amazon was on to something – everyone in the world went as a Chilean Miner this year.  Nonetheless, I did my best:

O.X. Outdoor Excursions (which by the way is not at all a unique name and this post is solely describing the the O.X. Adventure Tours in Antigua, Guatemala at www.oxexpeditions.com) promised the following to us in an e-mail description of our hike-zip-bike tour:

Victor Ferrell, Head-Guide at O.X. Outdoor Excursions

“We exit the cobble stone streets of Antigua and head into the picturesque hills on a small foot-path above the Panchoy Valley through small village and coffee farms snaking our way up a ridge line until finally after about 2 hours we come face to face with the longest Zip-Line in all of Guatemala!!  The Zip-Line is designed for the adventure lover who enjoys the thrill of connecting up to the double line and cruising for almost 1700ft and over the canyon floor, 500ft below! Once across the canyon, you climb to another zip tower and do it again, back across the canyon.  After the Zip we hike 10 minutes to Earth Lodge, an eco-hostel located in the hills above Antigua and the Panchoy valley.  Enjoy lunch and the beverage of your choice taking in the excellent views of Volcanoes Agua, Acatenango and Fuego.  After lunch, we hop on the bikes and take in a leisurely ride down the road ending at The Cross monument that watches over Antigua.  A great way to take in the beauty with a little bit of exercise and a whole lot of fun!!”

It sounded great.  It wasn’t.  So what went wrong?  There are many US based standards organizations providing customer service guidelines, however, since our experience occured in Guatemala, I find it only fitting to adapt international guidelines (just in case our own customer service standards don’t translate well into other cultures).  ISO 9004-2: 1991 Introduction to quality service includes the following guidelines:

A quality service system is one that:

• Ensures that customer needs are met.

We started the morning by telling O.X. that we had already eaten breakfast and therefore didn’t want to have to buy another one at Victor’s buddy’s restaurant – “The Earth Lodge.”  They told us that this was not an option.  As a wedding party member, I also needed to be back for pictures by 2:00 pm and O.X. seemed unconcerned.

• Receives regular feedback from customers.

It would have been tough for our guide to receive feedback from us throughout the hike because she stayed in the back of our group, chatting with the other guide in Spanish.  As a result, we frequently had to stop and wait for her to catch up so that she could let us know which way to go.  This is less than ideal in a country with one of the highest violent crime rates in Latin America.

• Respects customer perceptions and opinions. 

My brother and I were told by Victor that many people in our group (“especially the women”) had bad attitudes.  He also called one of his employees a lesbian in front of us.

• Pays attention to cultural values and perceptions.

We received absolutely no cultural information throughout our hike.  At our request, we visited Antigua’s famous Cerro de la Cruz, however, our guide didn’t know when the cross was constructed.  Also, thinking that we had become “bros” in the one day that we interacted, Victor shared with me how crazy Antigua was and how he couldn’t wait to get out of the country to their other business location in Colombia.  This instilled in me a great impression of the Antiguan tourism industry that I assume Victor relies heavily on.

• Improves service performance and productivity.

The Zip Line company that was hired by Victor (because O.X. doesn’t provide that service), required all of us to wear helmets for the zip line.  Which is an interesting safety feature when you’re dangling a thousand feet above the canopy floor because a plastic helmet probably wouldn’t get you very far.  However, later in the trip, during the bike portion, although it was raining and we were descending thousands of feet down switch back roads through the mountains, O.X. did not provide helmets.  After the trip, a member of our party brought up to Victor that he felt very unsafe biking the mountain roads without a helmet and Victor later recounted this to my brother and I as an instance of our group “complaining” during the trip.

• Encourages personnel to improve quality.

When we provided feedback to our guide that she trailed our group and we constantly had to wait for her to guide us on the trail, she claimed it was because we were already such a friendly and close knit group.  We also cited her complete lack of any knowledge of the surrounding area and its culture and in response, she told us that she was trained in preventing hypothermia (it was 85° and humid) and not as a tour guide.

• Controls costs and improves efficiency.

O.X. doesn’t take credit cards!  This would of course require O.X. to pay 1-3% merchant fees to credit card companies.  There are many benefits to merchants who accept credit cards and O.X. is evidently not interesting in them.  Instead, O.X. forced my brother to pay thousands of dollars to them via PayPal and personally incur PayPal’s transaction fees.  After our initial hike-zip-bike tour went so poorly, we decided to cancel our Volcan Acatenango trip for the subsequent day.  As a result, Victor was completely unwilling to work with us on a discount after our initial customer experience went so poorly.  At this point, my brother’s PayPal transaction for thousands of dollars had still not gone through and Victor was visibly (and audibly) concerned.  However, we requested that prior to O.X. pushing an incorrect transaction amount through PayPal that they first provide us with the details of the exact refund that they were willing to provide for our pre-paid Acatenango trip.  At that, Victor began threatening to instead escalate the transaction to small claims court or a collection agency.  We complied and as a result of not adjusting the incorrect balance prior to the transaction going through, once my brother actually did receive a refund, he was forced to again endure more PayPal transaction fees to withdraw the money.

Unanimously, everyone’s favorite part of the trip was the zip line that we did high over the canopy of the jungle.  However, this was the only part of the tour that O.X. had nothing to do with because they purchased our zip lining from another company.  Afterwards, a couple of us thought that perhaps our overwhelmingly negative experience with O.X. was an anomaly.  Perhaps their customer service actually is impeccable and Victor, the owner, is actually a sincere and caring person.  Then we found this review:

“The owner Victor, an American guy, is very pushy and money orientated.  Try not to deal with him – he is very in your face.  The website says they supply all your camping gear, but then when we asked Victor for things on the day he refused to supply us with a torch for no apparent reason.  He could have told us that at the time of booking and we could have got one for the trip.  Even local/ex-pat cafe owners we spoke to said the locals do not like him because he is obsessed with money!  Make sure whatever you do, he does not go on your trip as a guide as he will spoil it with his bad attitude…  If we didn’t have to deal with Victor it would have been the best experience but his aggressive and unfriendly attitude at the start was the only issue.”

My advice: book your zip line tour through the company that actually operates the zip line and avoid Victor like the streets of Guatemala City after dark.

However, this system also undoubtedly causes strife for Girl Scout Cookie lovers across the nation.  This is because there is actually very little consistency throughout states or even counties in some instances, whether Little Brownie Bakers or ABC Bakers have been selected as the baker of choice (it is up to the Girl Scout leadership in that region of the country).  So if you find yourself in Buffalo County in Western Wisconsin, be careful how your order your Caramelly Coconut treat.  Much like families were torn apart during the Civil War, it seems Buffalo County has it own Girl Scout struggles between the north and south of the county.  Also, what’s up with Osceola County in northwest Iowa being the only county in the whole state that purchased from Little Brownie Bakers because they are actually a part of Southwest Minnesota’s Girl Scout Leadership?  Either way, that is whack and they must really be in love with Samoas (and not Caramel DeLites).  Thin Mints may be Thin Mints across the board, but here is a summary of the confusing cookie names.

So I did some research – a lot of it actually – and created the following map of how Girl Scout Cookies break down throughout the Midwest.  I highlighted the WI, MN, and UP counties in white but then grew a little lazy as I researched the baker of choice throughout the rest of the map.  If you zoom in you can still make out the other county lines though.

Girl Scout Cookie Map

View Minnesota and Wisconsin Map Only

Wednesday has long been known by many Madisonians as “wing night,” however, I’ve gotten tired of this guy at brothers and Brats’ wings are simply ok.  This week I discovered my new favorite gluttonous Wednesday activity at Chasers (formerly Quint-ins): 50 cent tacos.  They also have $1 high lifes, which doesn’t hurt.  While enjoying 10 tacos for $5, I was complaining about my plans to tackle a half marathon in two weeks and how my laziness has really gotten in the way of my training.  My friend Sam suggested to me that as a male, I’m just about in my “athletic prime,” so I should be ok anyway.  The idea that I, as a college student who eats QDoba at least once a week, might be in my athletic prime seemed ridiculous to me, so I thought I would check it out…

US Olympic Team - Men vs. Women Average Age (Source)

If the US Olympic data is any indication, I won’t be in my athletic prime for another 1.1 years. I’m sure that in this time, my athletic prowess will turn around on its own, and I’ll be doing this in no time.  I did find the Men’s and Women’s trend lines interesting, however.  I’m sure that a similar graph for China would look very different because of their crazy gymnast ages, but in the US, it appears that male and female Olympians are converging to similar ages, despite the averages over time being about a three year difference.

By the way, sexual primes, although variable, are believed to be between 18-22 for men and 35-40 for women.  Interesting that this occurs three years before the athletic peak for men, but 13 years after the athletic peak for women.

j. Keeping of up to four (4) chickens on a lot with up to four dwelling units, provided that:
     i. No person shall keep any rooster.
     ii. No person shall slaughter any chickens.
     iii. The chickens shall be provided with a covered enclosure and must be kept in the covered enclosure or a fenced enclosure at all times.
     iv. No enclosure shall be located closer than twenty-five (25) feet to any residential structure on an adjacent lot.
     v. The owner, operator, or tenant obtains a license under Sec. 9.52, MGO.
     vi. The applicant for a license notifies all residents within two hundred (200) feet of the lot.
     vii. Not more than fifty percent (50%) of the residents notified in vi. above object within fourteen (14) days of notification.

So if you’re a Madison resident and have ridiculous amounts of free time, why not raise your own chickens?  Actually, I can think of a few reasons why not…

I have a feeling that once I’m out of school my days of having the Stadium Bar as my number one transaction are numbered.  I do have valid reasons for everything on the list though.  This “short” post ended up being medium length.  Good thing my project team chose to meet at 9:00 AM tomorrow (Saturday)…